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Setup Lab
TheDesperateTrader.com· do these setups actually work?
For every trading setup, what the tape actually did next, measured from our own history and always shown against the market’s own baseline. No cherry-picked winners. Upside and downside get equal weight, because upside alone is just volatility.
40 trading days2.3M tradeable bars60-min horizon
Read this first
A big upside number is not an edge. The setups traders chase hardest reach the most in both directions - momentum pops touch 9.3% on average, but drop to -7.5%, and hit −5% more often than +5% (46% vs 42%), and their average net move is negative. Setup Lab shows that plainly, so you size and time on reality instead of the highlight reel.
Featured setup · how to read a card
Momentum pop
5-minute return above 3%
Lags baselineoccurrences41k
◀ downsidenetupside ▶
−10%dashed = market baseline reach+10%
Avg max up
+9.32%
Avg max down
−7.46%
Avg net
−0.83%
Reached +5%42.3%
Dropped −5%45.8%
More often fell −5% than rose +5%.
What this means rules-based, no AI guesswork
- Historically a net loser versus the market baseline (−0.83% vs −0.03%).
- It falls to −5% more often than it rises to +5% (46% vs 42%).
- Big excursion, near-zero direction: that is volatility, not edge. The base rate favors fading or scalping the move, not riding it.
All setups · ranked by average upside reach
Opening drive
First 15 minutes, 5-minute return above 2%
Lags baselineoccurrences50k
◀ downsidenetupside ▶
−10%dashed = market baseline reach+10%
Avg max up
+7.19%
Avg max down
−6.41%
Avg net
−0.84%
Reached +5%37.5%
Dropped −5%40.6%
More often fell −5% than rose +5%.
RVOL spike
Relative volume above 5x, first 90 minutes
No net edgeoccurrences392k
◀ downsidenetupside ▶
−10%dashed = market baseline reach+10%
Avg max up
+1.50%
Avg max down
−1.43%
Avg net
−0.03%
Reached +5%5.6%
Dropped −5%5.5%
New-high breakout
Prints a new 60-bar high
No net edgeoccurrences411k
◀ downsidenetupside ▶
−10%dashed = market baseline reach+10%
Avg max up
+1.02%
Avg max down
−0.93%
Avg net
−0.02%
Reached +5%2.8%
Dropped −5%2.4%
VWAP reclaim
Crosses back above VWAP
No net edgeoccurrences605k
◀ downsidenetupside ▶
−10%dashed = market baseline reach+10%
Avg max up
+0.65%
Avg max down
−0.64%
Avg net
−0.01%
Reached +5%1.2%
Dropped −5%1.0%
Market baseline
All intraday bars
Baselineoccurrences2.33M
◀ downsidenetupside ▶
−10%dashed = market baseline reach+10%
Avg max up
+1.06%
Avg max down
−1.00%
Avg net
−0.03%
Reached +5%3.2%
Dropped −5%3.2%
Method & honest limits
- What the numbers mean. For each bar matching a setup we read the next 60 minutes: the most it rose (max up), the most it fell (max down), and where it actually ended (net). Averaged across every occurrence, then compared to the market baseline of all intraday bars.
- Excursion is not capture. Max up is the best moment that existed, not what a trader would keep. It measures how much the stock moved, not how much you would make.
- Net edge decides the verdict. A setup “beats baseline” only if its average net move clears the market’s. On this window, the popular setups do not.
- Tradeable names only. Bars are filtered to a liquidity floor (at least $1, actively trading), so the base rates describe stocks you could realistically act on.
- Short window, refreshed nightly. Base rates, honestly reported. Not advice, not a performance promise, and not personalized.
Frequently asked questions
What the tape actually did after the setups traders chase, measured honestly.
- Do trading setups like momentum pops actually work?
- Measured over our own intraday history, the popular high-excursion setups (momentum pops, opening drives) reach the most in BOTH directions and net negative - they hit -5% about as often, or more often, than +5%. A big average upside is volatility, not an edge. Setup Lab shows the upside, downside and net together so you judge on the net move versus the market baseline.
- What is "average max up" and why isn't it my profit?
- Average max up is the most a stock rose during the forward window - the best moment that existed, not what a trader would keep. Excursion is not capture. That gap between how much a stock moved and how much you would realistically make is exactly what these base rates are built to expose.
- How is a setup judged to "beat the baseline"?
- Only on its average NET move versus the market baseline of all intraday bars - never on upside alone. On the current window, none of the popular setups clear the baseline on net, and the flashiest ones lag it.
- What data is this measured on?
- Our own intraday bar history, filtered to a tradeable-liquidity floor (at least $1 and actively trading) so the base rates describe names you could realistically act on, not illiquid noise. It refreshes nightly as the window grows. Base rates, not advice.
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