Research
Does the opening-range breakout follow through?
TheDesperateTrader.com· First 15 minutes, 5-minute return above 2%
A strong push right off the open. High volatility, negative average net. Over 50k occurrences, it lags the market baseline on the net move - the number that matters once you stop counting upside you never keep.
Opening drive
First 15 minutes, 5-minute return above 2%
Lags baselineoccurrences50k
◀ downsidenetupside ▶
−10%dashed = market baseline reach+10%
Avg max up
+7.19%
Avg max down
−6.41%
Avg net
−0.84%
Reached +5%37.5%
Dropped −5%40.6%
More often fell −5% than rose +5%.
What this means rules-based, no AI guesswork
- Historically a net loser versus the market baseline (−0.84% vs −0.03%).
- It falls to −5% more often than it rises to +5% (41% vs 37%).
- Big excursion, near-zero direction: that is volatility, not edge. The base rate favors fading or scalping the move, not riding it.
Want to catch this setup live?
The base rate is the honest context. Our real-time scanner is where you find these names as they happen.
Base rates measured over our own intraday history (2026-07-17 to 2026-09-11), tradeable-liquidity names only, refreshed nightly. Max up and max down are the most a stock moved, not what a trader keeps (excursion is not capture). This is research, not investment advice.