Research
Do breakouts to new highs actually work?
TheDesperateTrader.com· Prints a new 60-bar high
Breaking to a fresh intraday high. Underperforms the baseline on forward upside. Over 411k occurrences, it shows no net edge over the market baseline on the net move - the number that matters once you stop counting upside you never keep.
New-high breakout
Prints a new 60-bar high
No net edgeoccurrences411k
◀ downsidenetupside ▶
−10%dashed = market baseline reach+10%
Avg max up
+1.02%
Avg max down
−0.93%
Avg net
−0.02%
Reached +5%2.8%
Dropped −5%2.4%
What this means rules-based, no AI guesswork
- No net edge: it nets roughly flat against the market baseline.
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The base rate is the honest context. Our real-time scanner is where you find these names as they happen.
Base rates measured over our own intraday history (2026-07-17 to 2026-09-11), tradeable-liquidity names only, refreshed nightly. Max up and max down are the most a stock moved, not what a trader keeps (excursion is not capture). This is research, not investment advice.