Research
Does relative volume actually predict a move?
TheDesperateTrader.com· Relative volume above 5x, first 90 minutes
Unusual early volume. Barely beats the baseline on upside and roughly washes on net. Over 392k occurrences, it shows no net edge over the market baseline on the net move - the number that matters once you stop counting upside you never keep.
RVOL spike
Relative volume above 5x, first 90 minutes
No net edgeoccurrences392k
◀ downsidenetupside ▶
−10%dashed = market baseline reach+10%
Avg max up
+1.50%
Avg max down
−1.43%
Avg net
−0.03%
Reached +5%5.6%
Dropped −5%5.5%
What this means rules-based, no AI guesswork
- No net edge: it nets roughly flat against the market baseline.
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Base rates measured over our own intraday history (2026-07-17 to 2026-09-11), tradeable-liquidity names only, refreshed nightly. Max up and max down are the most a stock moved, not what a trader keeps (excursion is not capture). This is research, not investment advice.