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Benzinga·Oct 16

Economists See Recession Risk Waning, End Of Fed Rate Hikes: How Could Treasury ETFs React To Yields?

Economists are increasingly upbeat about the U.S. economy, with a growing consensus that the country is headed for what is known as a soft landing. In the latest quarterly survey conducted by The Wall Street Journal, 65 economists have collectively lowered their recession probability forecast for the next year. Previously standing at an average of 54% in July, this figure has now taken a significant dip to a more encouraging 48%, falling below the 50% mark for the first time since the middle of the previous year. This figure is relatively more optimistic than the New York Federal Reserve’s model, which still suggests a 56% chance of a recession due to the yield differential between ten-year and three-month Treasuries. Economists Change Tune Economic experts are increasingly of the opinion that the Federal Reserve has wrapped up its current cycle of interest rate hikes. After pushing short-term borrowing costs to a 22-year high of 5.25% to 5.5% in July, nearly 60% of surveyed economists believe that the Fed is ...Full story available on Benzinga.com