Research
Does a gap up actually keep running?
TheDesperateTrader.com· Opened at least 5% above the prior close
A stock that gapped up 5% or more overnight. The classic "gap and go" candidate - and on average it fades. Over 57k days, it fades from the open on average - and 35% of the time the gap filled.
Gap up 5%+
Opened at least 5% above the prior close
Fades the gapdays57k
◀ closed red from openopenclosed green ▶
−2%dashed = market baseline+2%
Avg gap
+9.20%
Avg open→close
−0.81%
Closed green
40.6%
Filled the gap35.4%
Share that traded back down to the prior close at some point during the day.
What this means rules-based, no AI guesswork
- On average it gives back the pop: the typical day closed −0.81% from its open versus −0.02% for a normal day.
- 35% of these gap-ups traded back down to the prior close at some point - the gap "filled".
- Fewer than half (41%) actually closed green from the open, so buying the open was a coin flip at best.
Want to catch these gaps live?
The base rate is the honest context. Our real-time scanners are where you find these names as they gap.
Base rates measured over our own daily history (2024-12-03 to 2026-09-16), tradeable-liquidity names only, split-scale moves excluded. Gap fill means the price touched the prior close intraday, not a trade you would keep. This is research, not investment advice.