Research
Do big gap ups keep running or fade?
TheDesperateTrader.com· Opened at least 10% above the prior close
A big overnight gap up of 10% or more. Bigger gaps fade more, not less. Over 15k days, it fades from the open on average - and 27% of the time the gap filled.
Gap up 10%+
Opened at least 10% above the prior close
Fades the gapdays15k
◀ closed red from openopenclosed green ▶
−2%dashed = market baseline+2%
Avg gap
+16.26%
Avg open→close
−1.09%
Closed green
40.5%
Filled the gap26.7%
Share that traded back down to the prior close at some point during the day.
What this means rules-based, no AI guesswork
- On average it gives back the pop: the typical day closed −1.09% from its open versus −0.02% for a normal day.
- 27% of these gap-ups traded back down to the prior close at some point - the gap "filled".
- Fewer than half (41%) actually closed green from the open, so buying the open was a coin flip at best.
Want to catch these gaps live?
The base rate is the honest context. Our real-time scanners are where you find these names as they gap.
Base rates measured over our own daily history (2024-12-03 to 2026-09-16), tradeable-liquidity names only, split-scale moves excluded. Gap fill means the price touched the prior close intraday, not a trade you would keep. This is research, not investment advice.