Research
Do gap downs bounce or keep falling?
TheDesperateTrader.com· Opened at least 5% below the prior close
A stock that gapped down 5% or more overnight. Do gap downs bounce, or keep falling? Over 50k days, it bounces from the open on average - and 30% of the time the gap filled.
Gap down 5%+
Opened at least 5% below the prior close
Bounces from opendays50k
◀ closed red from openopenclosed green ▶
−2%dashed = market baseline+2%
Avg gap
−8.92%
Avg open→close
+0.40%
Closed green
51.3%
Filled the gap30.0%
Share that traded back up to the prior close at some point during the day.
What this means rules-based, no AI guesswork
- It genuinely follows through: the typical day closed +0.40% from its open, ahead of a normal day (−0.02%).
- 30% of these gap-downs traded back up to the prior close at some point - the gap "filled".
- 51% closed green from the open - a gap down bounced from its open about as often as a normal day.
Want to catch these gaps live?
The base rate is the honest context. Our real-time scanners are where you find these names as they gap.
Base rates measured over our own daily history (2024-12-03 to 2026-09-16), tradeable-liquidity names only, split-scale moves excluded. Gap fill means the price touched the prior close intraday, not a trade you would keep. This is research, not investment advice.