Research
Do big gap downs bounce back?
TheDesperateTrader.com· Opened at least 10% below the prior close
A hard overnight gap down of 10% or more - a bad-news or dilution reaction. Over 13k days, it keeps falling from the open on average - and 17% of the time the gap filled.
Gap down 10%+
Opened at least 10% below the prior close
Keeps fallingdays13k
◀ closed red from openopenclosed green ▶
−2%dashed = market baseline+2%
Avg gap
−15.78%
Avg open→close
−0.12%
Closed green
48.4%
Filled the gap16.6%
Share that traded back up to the prior close at some point during the day.
What this means rules-based, no AI guesswork
- On average it keeps falling: the typical day closed −0.12% from its open versus −0.03% for a normal day.
- 17% of these gap-downs traded back up to the prior close at some point - the gap "filled".
- 48% closed green from the open - a gap down bounced from its open about as often as a normal day.
Want to catch these gaps live?
The base rate is the honest context. Our real-time scanners are where you find these names as they gap.
Base rates measured over our own daily history (2024-12-03 to 2026-10-30), tradeable-liquidity names only, split-scale moves excluded. Gap fill means the price touched the prior close intraday, not a trade you would keep. This is research, not investment advice.