Research
Do big gap downs bounce back?
TheDesperateTrader.com· Opened at least 10% below the prior close
A hard overnight gap down of 10% or more - a bad-news or dilution reaction. Over 12k days, it shows no net edge from the open on average - and 17% of the time the gap filled.
Gap down 10%+
Opened at least 10% below the prior close
No net edgedays12k
◀ closed red from openopenclosed green ▶
−2%dashed = market baseline+2%
Avg gap
−15.86%
Avg open→close
−0.10%
Closed green
48.7%
Filled the gap16.8%
Share that traded back up to the prior close at some point during the day.
What this means rules-based, no AI guesswork
- No real edge either way: the typical day closed −0.10% from its open, essentially the same as a normal day (−0.02%).
- 17% of these gap-downs traded back up to the prior close at some point - the gap "filled".
- 49% closed green from the open - a gap down bounced from its open about as often as a normal day.
Want to catch these gaps live?
The base rate is the honest context. Our real-time scanners are where you find these names as they gap.
Base rates measured over our own daily history (2024-12-03 to 2026-09-16), tradeable-liquidity names only, split-scale moves excluded. Gap fill means the price touched the prior close intraday, not a trade you would keep. This is research, not investment advice.